Delegate Math

A belated update!
Including primary results from Kentucky and Oregon, Clinton now has a majority of delegates from primary votes.  Clinton 1325.5, Obama 1322, Edwards 12.

As an aside, it’s intriguing to see Clinton mention that Bobby Kennedy was still in the race in at the time of his assassination in June.  It was even more interesting to see the press jump on the mention of the assassination, but not that the current campaign is far more decided than it was in June 1968.  It was also interesting to see the Kennedy-Obama comparison being drawn, even though the Kennedy-Clinton comparison was the actual comparison being made.  Kennedy was not the frontrunner at the time of his killing: he was second, as is Clinton.  Nice to see the press swing hard and miss at this one.

Numbers from Wikipedia – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

Obama holds a 2-1 delegate lead from states using caucuses. (319 Obama, 176 Clinton, 6 Edwards). So it’s clear to me that Obama’s campaign has been superior at working the party system, which is the key to good caucusing.

When delegates are chosen by direct party vote, the delegate count tells a much different story (1277 Obama, 1267.5 Clinton, 12 Edwards). So it appears to me that Obama isn’t appearing as universally palatable to the general populace as I infer from the press.

It is interesting to see the superdelegates (who are supposedly the best qualified to choose the candidate that will best support the party’s interests) initially supported Clinton, and only support Obama now that he is the supposed imminent nominee. In other words, he really isn’t the best candidate (otherwise, he would have had superdelegate support in February and March), but it better for the party to have the second-best candidate than to have a fuss.

Presidential Questions

My questions for any and all presidential candidates: organized loosely by Cabinet Department.

State: Is it acceptable for Iran to possess nuclear weapons? If the international community mandates inspections, what should be the consequence for Iran’s rejection of inspections?

State: What is the role of the United Nations in the world, and what is our role toward the UN? How are US citizens compensated by what we give to the UN?

Treasury: Should people who have trouble finding work be allowed to temporarily work for less than the minimum wage?

Treasury: If tax cuts stimulate the economy and therefore increase overall revenue (as described by John F. Kennedy), then why not lower taxes? Or was John F. Kennedy wrong?

Defense: How and when should we withdraw from Iraq? Give an example where the following military responses against another country would be appropriate: 1) A single air strike, 2) A naval blockade, 3) An extended air campaign, 4) A ground invasion.

Justice: If we already have laws against driving under the influence, theft and damage of property, assault, murder, racketeering and organized criminal activity, public nuisance and vagrancy, child abuse and neglect, and contributing to the delinquency of minors, then why do we need separate drug dealing and possession laws? And, by the way, why should an otherwise law abiding citizen be denied the ability to smoke marijuana for medical reasons in their own home?

Justice: Do Mexican nationals have the right to emigrate to the United States? If yes, do they have a right to our public services? If yes, are American citizens compelled to pay taxes for those services? If a Mexican national commits a crime in the United States, why would we choose to keep them in the U.S., and not deport them?

Justice: When does a foetus have an independant ‘right to life’ compared to woman?

Interior: Why doesn’t the government lease and sell land at market prices?

Agriculture: Why do we have farm subsidies, even though they cost taxpayer money, cause the price of food to rise, and prevent the third world from finding economic independence through exports to the U.S.? Aren’t we in favor of lower taxes, lower food prices, and third world countries earning their keep instead of living on foreign aid?

Health and Human Services, Education and Social Security Administration: Should citizens be able to opt-out of Medicare, Social Security, and public education systems, and have their contributions to those programs refunded, and used to purchase health insurance, fund retirement accounts, and provide private education that better meets their needs?

Labor: What should be the role of trade unions in our country?

Homeland Security: Why doesn’t airport security spend the most time screening potential passengers that are a more dangerous threat?

And for the EPA: What were the causes of global temperature changes in other eras of history? What is the effect of human activity on global temperatures on global temperature as a percentage of the effect of normal fluctuations of our sun?